• Miner Bob has purchased 1 PH/s of mining machine/cloud mining power/mining tokens, and he wishes to lock in the mining reward for 1 May 2021 to 14 May 2021.

  • Hash Rate Futures maturing on 1 May 2021 (Block height 681408) is trading at futures price of P = 0.0823 BTC, the implied difficulty at 21.3876T).

  • Bob short sells 1 contract of Hash Rate Futures maturing on 1 May 2021

Let's fast forward to 1 May and block height 681408, and assuming

  • The actual difficulty resets to D.

  • The total mining reward for the 14 day period based on D is R, i.e. Bob would get R by mining Bitcon for the next 14 days.

  • Total PnL for Bob on his short position is -(R-P).

  • Total reward for Bob is fixed at R -(R-P) = P

That means, Bob has locked in his mining reward at P with his position in Hash Rate Futures, regardless of the actual mining difficulty after reset.

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